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FC Grimma vs Bischofswerdaer FV — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

FC Grimma
FC Grimma
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
8/31/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

FC Grimma39%
×Draw23%
Bischofswerdaer FV38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Grimma
1.64
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 77 away

creates per match

FC Grimma
1.70
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.57

allows per match

FC Grimma
1.65
Bischofswerdaer FV
1.58

finishing

FC Grimma+0.00on par
Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Grimma ↓

Bischofswerdaer FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Grimma or draw
62%
FC Grimma or Bischofswerdaer FV
77%
Draw or Bischofswerdaer FV
61%

Winning margin

FC Grimma wins by 2+
20%
Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Grimma 1+ goals
81%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
49%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
23%
Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
80%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
48%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Grimma (draw refunded)
51%
Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Grimma at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Bischofswerdaer FV away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.58 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Grimma attack 1.70 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.64

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.57 + FC Grimma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Grimma scores more
39%
level
23%
Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
38%

FC Grimma at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Grimma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: FC Grimma 2–0 Bischofswerdaer FV

FC Grimma beat Bischofswerdaer FV 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz in Grimma.