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FC Grimma vs Arnstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

FC Grimma
FC Grimma
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arnstadt
Arnstadt
9/16/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 6Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Grimma55%
×Draw21%
Arnstadt23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Grimma
2.08
Arnstadt
1.29

FC Grimma creates 61% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Grimma
1.70
Arnstadt
0.94

allows per match

FC Grimma
1.65
Arnstadt
2.45

finishing

FC Grimma+0.00on par
Arnstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Grimma ↓

Arnstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

FC Grimma or draw
77%
FC Grimma or Arnstadt
79%
Draw or Arnstadt
45%

Winning margin

FC Grimma wins by 2+
33%
Arnstadt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Grimma 1+ goals
87%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
61%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
34%
Arnstadt 1+ goals
72%
Arnstadt 2+ goals
37%
Arnstadt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Grimma (draw refunded)
70%
Arnstadt (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Grimma at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

Arnstadt away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Grimma attack 1.70 + Arnstadt defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.08

Arnstadt attack 0.94 + FC Grimma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Grimma scores more
55%
level
21%
Arnstadt scores more
23%

FC Grimma at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Grimma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: FC Grimma 0–0 Arnstadt

FC Grimma and Arnstadt drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz in Grimma.