Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Grimma vs An der Fahner Höhe — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

FC Grimma
FC Grimma
FT
0 – 0
An der Fahner Höhe
An der Fahner Höhe
10/23/2021Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 11Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Grimma46%
×Draw24%
An der Fahner Höhe30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Grimma
1.70
An der Fahner Höhe
1.34

FC Grimma creates 27% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

creates per match

FC Grimma
1.70
An der Fahner Höhe
1.03

allows per match

FC Grimma
1.65
An der Fahner Höhe
1.70

finishing

FC Grimma+0.00on par
An der Fahner Höhe+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Grimma ↓

An der Fahner Höhe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Grimma or draw
70%
FC Grimma or An der Fahner Höhe
76%
Draw or An der Fahner Höhe
54%

Winning margin

FC Grimma wins by 2+
24%
An der Fahner Höhe wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Grimma 1+ goals
82%
FC Grimma 2+ goals
51%
FC Grimma 3+ goals
24%
An der Fahner Höhe 1+ goals
74%
An der Fahner Höhe 2+ goals
39%
An der Fahner Höhe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Grimma (draw refunded)
60%
An der Fahner Höhe (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Grimma at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.65 · 81 matches

An der Fahner Höhe away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Grimma attack 1.70 + An der Fahner Höhe defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

An der Fahner Höhe attack 1.03 + FC Grimma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Grimma scores more
46%
level
24%
An der Fahner Höhe scores more
30%

FC Grimma at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Grimma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: FC Grimma 0–0 An der Fahner Höhe

FC Grimma and An der Fahner Höhe drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz in Grimma.