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FC Gomel vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
7/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Stadyen Central'ny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Gomel33%
×Draw25%
Ruh Brest42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.28
Ruh Brest
1.48

Ruh Brest creates 16% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.39
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.19
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
58%
FC Gomel or Ruh Brest
75%
Draw or Ruh Brest
67%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
14%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
72%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
37%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
14%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
77%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
43%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
44%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.39 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + FC Gomel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Gomel scores more
33%
level
25%
Ruh Brest scores more
42%

Ruh Brest at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Gomel vs Ruh Brest

FC Gomel and Ruh Brest drew 0-0 in Premier League on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadyen Central'ny in Gomel.