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FC Gomel vs FC Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Vitebsk
FC Vitebsk
A. Antilevskiy 84'
9/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

FC Gomel44%
×Draw26%
FC Vitebsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.42
FC Vitebsk
1.10

FC Gomel creates 29% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 106 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.43
FC Vitebsk
1.04

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.17
FC Vitebsk
1.42

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
FC Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

FC Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
71%
FC Gomel or FC Vitebsk
74%
Draw or FC Vitebsk
56%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
21%
FC Vitebsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
76%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
41%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
17%
FC Vitebsk 1+ goals
67%
FC Vitebsk 2+ goals
30%
FC Vitebsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
60%
FC Vitebsk (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.17 · 103 matches

FC Vitebsk away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.42 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.43 + FC Vitebsk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Vitebsk attack 1.04 + FC Gomel defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Gomel scores more
44%
level
26%
FC Vitebsk scores more
29%

FC Gomel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
Yan Skibsky
24'
Timofey Simanenka
39'
Vadim Martinkevich
62'
A. Antilevskiy← E. Barsukov
69'
V. Gorbachik← R. Teverov
72'
A. Savitskiy← D. Laptev
74'
Georgiy Kukushkin
75'
R. Lisovskiy← S. Tikhonovskiy
84'
A. Antilevskiy↳ R. Adeola
85'
D. Pesnyak← E. Krasnov
85'
V. Zhumaev← Y. Skibskiy
87'
D. Emelyanov← R. Adeola

Statistics

FCFC
Discipline
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Premier League: FC Gomel 1–0 FC Vitebsk

FC Gomel beat FC Vitebsk 1-0 in Premier League on September 15, 2025.

Goals: A. Antilevskiy (84').

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Gomel.