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FC Gomel vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Premier League 2018

FC Gomel
FC Gomel
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
5/4/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Centralnyj Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Gomel40%
×Draw26%
FC Isloch Minsk R.34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gomel
1.38
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.25

FC Gomel creates 10% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 127 away

creates per match

FC Gomel
1.39
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.31

allows per match

FC Gomel
1.19
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.38

finishing

FC Gomel+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gomel ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Gomel or draw
66%
FC Gomel or FC Isloch Minsk R.
74%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
60%

Winning margin

FC Gomel wins by 2+
19%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Gomel 1+ goals
75%
FC Gomel 2+ goals
40%
FC Gomel 3+ goals
16%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
71%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
36%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Gomel (draw refunded)
54%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gomel at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gomel attack 1.39 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 1.31 + FC Gomel defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Gomel scores more
40%
level
26%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
34%

FC Gomel at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Gomel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Gomel 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R.

FC Gomel and FC Isloch Minsk R. drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Centralnyj Stadion in Gomel.