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FC Gifu vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

FC Gifu
FC Gifu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
10/6/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Nagaragawa Stadium (Gifu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

FC Gifu37%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gifu
1.26
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 168 away

creates per match

FC Gifu
1.02
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

FC Gifu
1.52
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

FC Gifu+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gifu ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Gifu or draw
64%
FC Gifu or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
63%

Winning margin

FC Gifu wins by 2+
16%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Gifu 1+ goals
72%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
36%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
13%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
71%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
36%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Gifu (draw refunded)
50%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gifu at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gifu attack 1.02 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + FC Gifu defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FC Gifu scores more
37%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
36%

FC Gifu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FC Gifu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Gifu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

FC Gifu and Renofa Yamaguchi drew 1-1 in J2 League on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Nagaragawa Stadium (Gifu).