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FC Gifu vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

FC Gifu
FC Gifu
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
3/30/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 6Nagaragawa Stadium (Gifu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FC Gifu32%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gifu
1.14
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

Kyoto Sanga creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

FC Gifu
1.02
Kyoto Sanga
1.11

allows per match

FC Gifu
1.53
Kyoto Sanga
1.25

finishing

FC Gifu+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gifu ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Gifu or draw
59%
FC Gifu or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
68%

Winning margin

FC Gifu wins by 2+
13%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Gifu 1+ goals
68%
FC Gifu 2+ goals
32%
FC Gifu 3+ goals
11%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
73%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
38%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Gifu (draw refunded)
44%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gifu at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gifu attack 1.02 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.11 + FC Gifu defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Gifu scores more
32%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
41%

Kyoto Sanga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Gifu vs Kyoto Sanga

FC Gifu and Kyoto Sanga drew 1-1 in J2 League on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Nagaragawa Stadium (Gifu).