FC Gießen 1–1 Hünfelder SV: Result & Stats

FC Gießen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hünfelder SV

8/19/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 4Waldstadion Gießen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FC Gießen56%

×Draw22%

Hünfelder SV22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC GießenExpected goals in this matchHünfelder SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.20

FC Gießen

2.02

Hünfelder SV

1.20

FC Gießen creates 68% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 74 away

2.30

creates per match

1.50

0.89

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Gießen

2.30

Hünfelder SV

1.50

allows per match

FC Gießen

0.89

Hünfelder SV

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Gießen+0.00on par

Hünfelder SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gießen ↓

Hünfelder SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Gießen or draw

78%

FC Gießen or Hünfelder SV

78%

Draw or Hünfelder SV

44%

Winning margin

FC Gießen wins by 2+

33%

Hünfelder SV wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Gießen 1+ goals

87%

FC Gießen 2+ goals

60%

FC Gießen 3+ goals

33%

Hünfelder SV 1+ goals

70%

Hünfelder SV 2+ goals

34%

Hünfelder SV 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Gießen (draw refunded)

72%

Hünfelder SV (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gießen at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

Hünfelder SV away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.74 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gießen attack 2.30 + Hünfelder SV defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hünfelder SV attack 1.50 + FC Gießen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Gießen scores more

56%

level

22%

Hünfelder SV scores more

22%

FC Gießen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Gießen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff