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FC Gießen vs Friedberg — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

FC Gießen
FC Gießen
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Friedberg
Friedberg
2/24/2026Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 19Waldstadion Gießen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FC Gießen50%
×Draw22%
Friedberg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Gießen
1.91
Friedberg
1.39

FC Gießen creates 37% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 92 away

creates per match

FC Gießen
2.30
Friedberg
1.89

allows per match

FC Gießen
0.89
Friedberg
1.52

finishing

FC Gießen+0.00on par
Friedberg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Gießen ↓

Friedberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Gießen or draw
72%
FC Gießen or Friedberg
78%
Draw or Friedberg
50%

Winning margin

FC Gießen wins by 2+
28%
Friedberg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Gießen 1+ goals
85%
FC Gießen 2+ goals
57%
FC Gießen 3+ goals
30%
Friedberg 1+ goals
75%
Friedberg 2+ goals
40%
Friedberg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Gießen (draw refunded)
64%
Friedberg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Gießen at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.89 · 53 matches

Friedberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Gießen attack 2.30 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.91

Friedberg attack 1.89 + FC Gießen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Gießen scores more
50%
level
22%
Friedberg scores more
28%

FC Gießen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Gießen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: FC Gießen 4–0 Friedberg

FC Gießen beat Friedberg 4-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on February 24, 2026.

The match was played at Waldstadion Gießen in Gießen.