FC Fredericia 2–0 Roskilde: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Roskilde

A. Mucolli 56'

L. Enevoldsen 38'

11/6/2019

1. Division · Round 13Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC Fredericia51%

×Draw22%

Roskilde27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchRoskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.35

FC Fredericia

1.92

Roskilde

1.35

FC Fredericia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 48 away

1.63

creates per match

1.35

1.34

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.63

Roskilde

1.35

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.34

Roskilde

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

73%

FC Fredericia or Roskilde

78%

Draw or Roskilde

49%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

29%

Roskilde wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

85%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

57%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

30%

Roskilde 1+ goals

74%

Roskilde 2+ goals

39%

Roskilde 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

65%

Roskilde (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.34 · 114 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.63 + Roskilde defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.92

Roskilde attack 1.35 + FC Fredericia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

51%

level

22%

Roskilde scores more

27%

FC Fredericia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

L. Enevoldsen

46'

J. Jacobsen← N. Ritter

56'

C. Greening← K. Lindberg

56'

A. Mucolli

65'

K. Kirkegaard← M. Mikkelsen

69'

A. Njai← N. Jessen

74'

N. Kirk← A. Mucolli

FC

Roskilde

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Dal

46'▲J. Jacobsen←▼N. Ritter

65'▲K. Kirkegaard←▼M. Mikkelsen

74'▲N. Kirk←▼A. Mucolli

FC Fredericia substitutes

JacobsenKirkegaardKirkRaahaugeNygaardDawa

Manager: C. Iversen

56'▲C. Greening←▼K. Lindberg

69'▲A. Njai←▼N. Jessen

Roskilde substitutes

GreeningNjaiSahinSteenJørgensen