FC Fredericia 3–2 Naestved: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Naestved

7/10/2020

1. Division · Round 30Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FC Fredericia49%

×Draw24%

Naestved27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchNaestved

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.20

FC Fredericia

1.71

Naestved

1.20

FC Fredericia creates 43% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 65 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

1.35

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.63

Naestved

1.05

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.35

Naestved

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Naestved →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

73%

FC Fredericia or Naestved

76%

Draw or Naestved

51%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

26%

Naestved wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

82%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

51%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

24%

Naestved 1+ goals

70%

Naestved 2+ goals

34%

Naestved 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

65%

Naestved (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.35 · 114 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.63 + Naestved defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Naestved attack 1.05 + FC Fredericia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

49%

level

24%

Naestved scores more

27%

FC Fredericia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff