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FC Fredericia vs FC Nordsjaelland — Superliga 2018

FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
P. Egelund 85'
G. Marcussen 1'
P. Ankersen 36'
S. W. Egeli 15'
P. Amoako 4'
7/20/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

FC Fredericia33%
×Draw23%
FC Nordsjaelland43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fredericia
1.46
FC Nordsjaelland
1.70

FC Nordsjaelland creates 16% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 132 away

creates per match

FC Fredericia
1.25
FC Nordsjaelland
1.33

allows per match

FC Fredericia
2.06
FC Nordsjaelland
1.68

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par
FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw
57%
FC Fredericia or FC Nordsjaelland
77%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
67%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+
15%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals
77%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
43%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
18%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
82%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
51%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
43%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.25 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.46

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.33 + FC Fredericia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Fredericia scores more
33%
level
23%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
43%

FC Nordsjaelland at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98
A. MucolliFC FredericiaFC Fredericia · F
7.9

Match Events

1'
G. Marcussen↳ M. Opondo
4'
P. Amoako↳ C. Yirenkyi
15'
S. W. Egeli↳ P. Amoako
36'
P. Ankersen↳ N. Rojkjaer
46'
J. Jessen← A. Dahl
46'
P. Egelund← J. Lindekilde
47'
Emilio Simonsen
66'
A. Pyndt← W. Madsen
66'
R. Ascone← V. Berthelsen
66'
Z. Sertdemir← P. Amoako
74'
Jeppe Kudsk
78'
A. Mucolli← E. Simonsen
78'
J. Janssen← M. Brink
81'
Agon Mucolli
81'
Lucas Høgsberg
83'
Frederik RieperGoal cancelled
85'
A. Nygaard← S. Crone
85'
P. Egelund↳ A. Mucolli
89'
Zidan Sertdemir
89'
K. Hansen← N. Rojkjaer

Possession

39%FC

Shots

6FC

Pass accuracy

47%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
39%Possession61%
6Total Shots13
1.25Expected Goals (xG)1.21
5Corners2
14Fouls10
Shots
6Total Shots13
3On Target7
2Off Target4
1Blocked2
4Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
39%Possession61%
393Total Passes638
314Accurate Passes579
80%Pass Accuracy91%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Fredericia vs FC Nordsjaelland

FC Nordsjaelland beat FC Fredericia 3-2 in Superliga on July 20, 2025.

Goals: G. Marcussen (1'), P. Amoako (4'), S. W. Egeli (15'), P. Ankersen (36'), P. Egelund (85').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (61%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Monjasa Park in Fredericia.