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FC Fredericia vs B 93 — 1. Division 2018

FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
B 93
B 93
9/28/20241. Division1. Division · Round 11Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

FC Fredericia44%
×Draw23%
B 9333%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Fredericia
1.72
B 93
1.45

FC Fredericia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 48 away

creates per match

FC Fredericia
1.63
B 93
1.54

allows per match

FC Fredericia
1.35
B 93
1.81

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw
67%
FC Fredericia or B 93
77%
Draw or B 93
56%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+
23%
B 93 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals
82%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
51%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
25%
B 93 1+ goals
77%
B 93 2+ goals
42%
B 93 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
57%
B 93 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.35 · 114 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.81 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.63 + B 93 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.72

B 93 attack 1.54 + FC Fredericia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Fredericia scores more
44%
level
23%
B 93 scores more
33%

FC Fredericia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: FC Fredericia 3–0 B 93

FC Fredericia beat B 93 3-0 in 1. Division on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Monjasa Park in Fredericia.