FC Fredericia 2–1 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

2 – 1

Aarhus Fremad

2/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Fredericia46%

×Draw23%

Aarhus Fremad31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.50

FC Fredericia

1.86

Aarhus Fremad

1.50

FC Fredericia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

1.88

creates per match

1.26

1.75

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.88

Aarhus Fremad

1.26

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.75

Aarhus Fremad

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

69%

FC Fredericia or Aarhus Fremad

77%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

54%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

25%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

84%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

55%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

28%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

78%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

44%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

60%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.88 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.86

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.26 + FC Fredericia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

46%

level

23%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

31%

FC Fredericia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff