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FC Florida II vs FC Miami City — USL League Two 2018

FC Florida II
FC Florida II
FT
1 – 3
FC Miami City
FC Miami City
6/1/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20The Pine School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Florida II37%
×Draw24%
FC Miami City39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Florida II
1.54
FC Miami City
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Florida II
1.08
FC Miami City
1.45

allows per match

FC Florida II
1.75
FC Miami City
2.00

finishing

FC Florida II+0.00on par
FC Miami City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Florida II ↓

FC Miami City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Florida II or draw
61%
FC Florida II or FC Miami City
76%
Draw or FC Miami City
63%

Winning margin

FC Florida II wins by 2+
18%
FC Miami City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FC Florida II 1+ goals
79%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
45%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
20%
FC Miami City 1+ goals
80%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
47%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Florida II (draw refunded)
48%
FC Miami City (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Florida II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

FC Miami City away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.00 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Florida II attack 1.08 + FC Miami City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

FC Miami City attack 1.45 + FC Florida II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Florida II scores more
37%
level
24%
FC Miami City scores more
39%

FC Miami City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Miami City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Florida II 1 – 3 FC Miami City

FC Miami City beat FC Florida II 3-1 in USL League Two on June 1, 2022.

The match was played at The Pine School in Hobe Sound, Florida.