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FC Florida II vs Caledonia — USL League Two 2018

FC Florida II
FC Florida II
FT
3 – 0
Caledonia
Caledonia
6/25/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48The Pine School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Florida II59%
×Draw21%
Caledonia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Florida II
2.11
Caledonia
1.16

FC Florida II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Florida II
1.08
Caledonia
0.57

allows per match

FC Florida II
1.75
Caledonia
3.14

finishing

FC Florida II+0.00on par
Caledonia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Florida II ↓

Caledonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Florida II or draw
80%
FC Florida II or Caledonia
79%
Draw or Caledonia
41%

Winning margin

FC Florida II wins by 2+
36%
Caledonia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Florida II 1+ goals
88%
FC Florida II 2+ goals
62%
FC Florida II 3+ goals
35%
Caledonia 1+ goals
69%
Caledonia 2+ goals
32%
Caledonia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Florida II (draw refunded)
74%
Caledonia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Florida II at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Caledonia away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Florida II attack 1.08 + Caledonia defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.11

Caledonia attack 0.57 + FC Florida II defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FC Florida II scores more
59%
level
21%
Caledonia scores more
20%

FC Florida II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Florida II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Florida II vs Caledonia

FC Florida II beat Caledonia 3-0 in USL League Two on June 25, 2022.

The match was played at The Pine School in Hobe Sound, Florida.