FC Fleury 91 W 2–1 Bordeaux W: Result & Stats

FC Fleury 91 W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bordeaux W

L. Le Garrec 67'

A. Fontaine 50'

H. Sangaré 39'

11/11/2023

Feminine Division 1 · Round 7Stade Robert Bobin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

FC Fleury 91 W44%

×Draw25%

Bordeaux W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Fleury 91 WExpected goals in this matchBordeaux W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.28

FC Fleury 91 W

1.56

Bordeaux W

1.28

FC Fleury 91 W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

1.56

creates per match

1.31

1.25

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

FC Fleury 91 W

1.56

Bordeaux W

1.31

allows per match

FC Fleury 91 W

1.25

Bordeaux W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fleury 91 W+0.00on par

Bordeaux W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fleury 91 W ↓

Bordeaux W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Fleury 91 W or draw

69%

FC Fleury 91 W or Bordeaux W

75%

Draw or Bordeaux W

56%

Winning margin

FC Fleury 91 W wins by 2+

22%

Bordeaux W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FC Fleury 91 W 1+ goals

79%

FC Fleury 91 W 2+ goals

46%

FC Fleury 91 W 3+ goals

21%

Bordeaux W 1+ goals

72%

Bordeaux W 2+ goals

37%

Bordeaux W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Fleury 91 W (draw refunded)

58%

Bordeaux W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fleury 91 W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 85 matches

Bordeaux W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.55 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fleury 91 W attack 1.56 + Bordeaux W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bordeaux W attack 1.31 + FC Fleury 91 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Fleury 91 W scores more

44%

level

25%

Bordeaux W scores more

31%

FC Fleury 91 W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Fleury 91 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Fontaine

FC Fleury 91 W · F

7.6

Match Events

12'

Jelena Karličić

39'

H. Sangaré↳ J. Karličić

45'

Lea Le Garrec

46'

R. Kouassi← E. Kamczyk

46'

Serena Pinto de Queirós← M. Tarrieu

46'

F. Liaigre← J. Karličić

50'

A. Fontaine↳ B. Louis

55'

C. Lafaix← M. Seguin

58'

L. Autin← L. Pinot

67'

L. Le Garrec

71'

D. Kopińska← A. Fontaine

76'

Aldrith Quintero

76'

M. Ateluce← H. Sangaré

89'

T. Harris← L. Le Garrec

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBordeaux

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots10

8Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target6

5Off Target3

4Blocked1

8Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

467Total Passes322

360Accurate Passes228

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0