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FC Espoo vs KäPa — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

FC Espoo
FC Espoo
FT
0 – 3
KäPa
KäPa
8/31/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 18Leppävaaran Stadion (Espoo (Esbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

FC Espoo50%
×Draw22%
KäPa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Espoo
1.90
KäPa
1.38

FC Espoo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Espoo
1.97
KäPa
0.86

allows per match

FC Espoo
1.90
KäPa
1.82

finishing

FC Espoo+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Espoo ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

FC Espoo or draw
72%
FC Espoo or KäPa
78%
Draw or KäPa
50%

Winning margin

FC Espoo wins by 2+
28%
KäPa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Espoo 1+ goals
85%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
56%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
29%
KäPa 1+ goals
75%
KäPa 2+ goals
40%
KäPa 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Espoo (draw refunded)
64%
KäPa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Espoo at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

KäPa away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Espoo attack 1.97 + KäPa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.90

KäPa attack 0.86 + FC Espoo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Espoo scores more
50%
level
22%
KäPa scores more
28%

FC Espoo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Espoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Espoo vs KäPa

KäPa beat FC Espoo 3-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on August 31, 2018.

The match was played at Leppävaaran Stadion (Espoo (Esbo)).