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FC Espoo vs HJS Akatemia — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

FC Espoo
FC Espoo
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
HJS Akatemia
HJS Akatemia
6/9/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 7Leppävaaran Stadion (Espoo (Esbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Espoo43%
×Draw22%
HJS Akatemia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Espoo
1.86
HJS Akatemia
1.67

FC Espoo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 80 away

creates per match

FC Espoo
1.97
HJS Akatemia
1.45

allows per match

FC Espoo
1.90
HJS Akatemia
1.75

finishing

FC Espoo+0.00on par
HJS Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Espoo ↓

HJS Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

FC Espoo or draw
65%
FC Espoo or HJS Akatemia
78%
Draw or HJS Akatemia
57%

Winning margin

FC Espoo wins by 2+
23%
HJS Akatemia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FC Espoo 1+ goals
84%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
55%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
28%
HJS Akatemia 1+ goals
81%
HJS Akatemia 2+ goals
50%
HJS Akatemia 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

FC Espoo (draw refunded)
55%
HJS Akatemia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Espoo at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

HJS Akatemia away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Espoo attack 1.97 + HJS Akatemia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.86

HJS Akatemia attack 1.45 + FC Espoo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Espoo scores more
43%
level
22%
HJS Akatemia scores more
35%

FC Espoo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Espoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: FC Espoo 5–3 HJS Akatemia

FC Espoo beat HJS Akatemia 5-3 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Leppävaaran Stadion (Espoo (Esbo)).