FC Espoo 1–4 FC jazz: Result & Stats

FC Espoo

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

FC jazz

6/29/2019

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 10Leppävaaran Stadion (Espoo (Esbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Espoo42%

×Draw22%

FC jazz37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EspooExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.82

FC Espoo

1.94

FC jazz

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 65 away

1.97

creates per match

1.75

1.90

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

FC Espoo

1.97

FC jazz

1.75

allows per match

FC Espoo

1.90

FC jazz

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Espoo+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Espoo ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

FC Espoo or draw

63%

FC Espoo or FC jazz

78%

Draw or FC jazz

58%

Winning margin

FC Espoo wins by 2+

23%

FC jazz wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FC Espoo 1+ goals

86%

FC Espoo 2+ goals

58%

FC Espoo 3+ goals

30%

FC jazz 1+ goals

84%

FC jazz 2+ goals

54%

FC jazz 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

FC Espoo (draw refunded)

53%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Espoo at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Espoo attack 1.97 + FC jazz defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC jazz attack 1.75 + FC Espoo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Espoo scores more

42%

level

22%

FC jazz scores more

37%

FC Espoo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Espoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff