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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs Ruh Brest — Premier League 2018

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 4
Ruh Brest
Ruh Brest
7/12/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Stadyen Haradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk30%
×Draw24%
Ruh Brest46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.27
Ruh Brest
1.63

Ruh Brest creates 28% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 29 away

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.37
Ruh Brest
1.76

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.49
Ruh Brest
1.17

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par
Ruh Brest+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

Ruh Brest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw
54%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or Ruh Brest
76%
Draw or Ruh Brest
70%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
13%
Ruh Brest wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
72%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
36%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
14%
Ruh Brest 1+ goals
80%
Ruh Brest 2+ goals
48%
Ruh Brest 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
39%
Ruh Brest (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.49 · 75 matches

Ruh Brest away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.37 + Ruh Brest defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ruh Brest attack 1.76 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
30%
level
24%
Ruh Brest scores more
46%

Ruh Brest at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ruh Brest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1–8 Ruh Brest

Ruh Brest beat FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 8-1 in Premier League on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadyen Haradski in Molodechno.