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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk vs ABFF U17 — 1. Division 2018

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ABFF U17
ABFF U17
11/23/20241. Division1. Division · Round 34Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk52%
×Draw23%
ABFF U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.78
ABFF U17
1.15

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk creates 55% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.92
ABFF U17
1.06

allows per match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.23
ABFF U17
1.65

finishing

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk+0.00on par
ABFF U17+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk ↓

ABFF U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw
75%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or ABFF U17
77%
Draw or ABFF U17
48%

Winning margin

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk wins by 2+
29%
ABFF U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1+ goals
83%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2+ goals
53%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3+ goals
26%
ABFF U17 1+ goals
68%
ABFF U17 2+ goals
32%
ABFF U17 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk (draw refunded)
68%
ABFF U17 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

ABFF U17 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk attack 1.92 + ABFF U17 defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.78

ABFF U17 attack 1.06 + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk scores more
52%
level
23%
ABFF U17 scores more
25%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 0–1 ABFF U17

ABFF U17 beat FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1-0 in 1. Division on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.