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FC Eindhoven vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
2/23/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Eindhoven52%
×Draw22%
Jong Utrecht25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.90
Jong Utrecht
1.26

FC Eindhoven creates 51% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.64
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
75%
FC Eindhoven or Jong Utrecht
78%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
48%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
30%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
85%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
56%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
29%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
72%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
36%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
67%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.90

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
52%
level
22%
Jong Utrecht scores more
25%

FC Eindhoven at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Eindhoven 1–2 Jong Utrecht

Jong Utrecht beat FC Eindhoven 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.