Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
De Graafschap
De Graafschap
1/19/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 22Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

FC Eindhoven38%
×Draw24%
De Graafschap38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.55
De Graafschap
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 131 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.64
De Graafschap
1.68

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
De Graafschap
1.47

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
De Graafschap+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

De Graafschap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
62%
FC Eindhoven or De Graafschap
76%
Draw or De Graafschap
62%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
18%
De Graafschap wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
79%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
46%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
20%
De Graafschap 1+ goals
79%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
46%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
50%
De Graafschap (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

De Graafschap away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + De Graafschap defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

De Graafschap attack 1.68 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
38%
level
24%
De Graafschap scores more
38%

FC Eindhoven at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Eindhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap

De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 19, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.