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FC Egg vs Schruns — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

FC Egg
FC Egg
FT
1 – 3
Schruns
Schruns
10/6/2019Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 12Sportplatz FC Egg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Egg55%
×Draw20%
Schruns25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Egg
2.25
Schruns
1.46

FC Egg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 31 away

creates per match

FC Egg
2.09
Schruns
1.35

allows per match

FC Egg
1.56
Schruns
2.42

finishing

FC Egg+0.00on par
Schruns+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Egg ↓

Schruns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FC Egg or draw
75%
FC Egg or Schruns
80%
Draw or Schruns
45%

Winning margin

FC Egg wins by 2+
34%
Schruns wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Egg 1+ goals
89%
FC Egg 2+ goals
65%
FC Egg 3+ goals
39%
Schruns 1+ goals
77%
Schruns 2+ goals
43%
Schruns 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Egg (draw refunded)
69%
Schruns (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Egg at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Schruns away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Egg attack 2.09 + Schruns defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.25

Schruns attack 1.35 + FC Egg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Egg scores more
55%
level
20%
Schruns scores more
25%

FC Egg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Egg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Egg vs Schruns

Schruns beat FC Egg 3-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Egg in Egg.