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FC Egg vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

FC Egg
FC Egg
FT
2 – 3
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
9/15/2024Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 6Sportplatz FC Egg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

FC Egg60%
×Draw18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Egg
2.66
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.59

FC Egg creates 67% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 13 away

creates per match

FC Egg
2.09
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.62

allows per match

FC Egg
1.56
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.23

finishing

FC Egg+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Egg ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

FC Egg or draw
78%
FC Egg or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
82%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
40%

Winning margin

FC Egg wins by 2+
39%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Egg 1+ goals
93%
FC Egg 2+ goals
74%
FC Egg 3+ goals
49%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
80%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
47%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Egg (draw refunded)
73%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Egg at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Egg attack 2.09 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.66

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + FC Egg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

FC Egg scores more
60%
level
18%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
22%

FC Egg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FC Egg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Egg 2 – 3 Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Rot-Weiß Rankweil beat FC Egg 3-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Egg in Egg.