FC Egg 0–3 Dornbirner SV: Result & Stats

FC Egg

FT

0 – 3

Dornbirner SV

9/28/2024

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 8Sportplatz FC Egg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

FC Egg40%

×Draw22%

Dornbirner SV38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EggExpected goals in this matchDornbirner SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.76

FC Egg

1.80

Dornbirner SV

1.76

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 25 away

2.09

creates per match

1.96

1.56

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FC Egg

2.09

Dornbirner SV

1.96

allows per match

FC Egg

1.56

Dornbirner SV

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Egg+0.00on par

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Egg ↓

Dornbirner SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

FC Egg or draw

62%

FC Egg or Dornbirner SV

78%

Draw or Dornbirner SV

60%

Winning margin

FC Egg wins by 2+

21%

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

FC Egg 1+ goals

83%

FC Egg 2+ goals

54%

FC Egg 3+ goals

27%

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

83%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

52%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

FC Egg (draw refunded)

51%

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Egg at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.56 · 55 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Egg attack 2.09 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80

Dornbirner SV attack 1.96 + FC Egg defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Egg scores more

40%

level

22%

Dornbirner SV scores more

38%

FC Egg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Egg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff