FC Edmonton 1–1 York United: Result & Stats

FC Edmonton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

York United

4/16/2022

Canadian Premier League · Round 2Clarke Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Edmonton40%

×Draw26%

York United34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EdmontonExpected goals in this matchYork United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.30

FC Edmonton

1.42

York United

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 82 away

1.32

creates per match

1.15

1.45

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

FC Edmonton

1.32

York United

1.15

allows per match

FC Edmonton

1.45

York United

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Edmonton+0.00on par

York United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Edmonton ↓

York United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Edmonton or draw

66%

FC Edmonton or York United

74%

Draw or York United

60%

Winning margin

FC Edmonton wins by 2+

19%

York United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Edmonton 1+ goals

76%

FC Edmonton 2+ goals

41%

FC Edmonton 3+ goals

17%

York United 1+ goals

73%

York United 2+ goals

37%

York United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Edmonton (draw refunded)

54%

York United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Edmonton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

York United away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Edmonton attack 1.32 + York United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

York United attack 1.15 + FC Edmonton defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Edmonton scores more

40%

level

26%

York United scores more

34%

FC Edmonton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Edmonton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff