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FC Edmonton vs Valour — Canadian Premier League 2020

FC Edmonton
FC Edmonton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valour
Valour
4/10/2022Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 2Clarke Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Edmonton42%
×Draw25%
Valour33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Edmonton
1.56
Valour
1.35

FC Edmonton creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 74 away

creates per match

FC Edmonton
1.32
Valour
1.26

allows per match

FC Edmonton
1.45
Valour
1.81

finishing

FC Edmonton+0.00on par
Valour+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Edmonton ↓

Valour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Edmonton or draw
67%
FC Edmonton or Valour
75%
Draw or Valour
58%

Winning margin

FC Edmonton wins by 2+
21%
Valour wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Edmonton 1+ goals
79%
FC Edmonton 2+ goals
46%
FC Edmonton 3+ goals
21%
Valour 1+ goals
74%
Valour 2+ goals
39%
Valour 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Edmonton (draw refunded)
56%
Valour (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Edmonton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Valour away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.81 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Edmonton attack 1.32 + Valour defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Valour attack 1.26 + FC Edmonton defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Edmonton scores more
42%
level
25%
Valour scores more
33%

FC Edmonton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Edmonton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Edmonton vs Valour

FC Edmonton and Valour drew 1-1 in Canadian Premier League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Clarke Field in Edmonton, Alberta.