FC Edmonton 3–4 Forge: Result & Stats

FC Edmonton

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Forge

6/1/2022

Canadian Premier League · Round 4Clarke Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

FC Edmonton31%

×Draw26%

Forge43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC EdmontonExpected goals in this matchForge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.43

FC Edmonton

1.16

Forge

1.43

Forge creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 85 away

1.32

creates per match

1.41

1.45

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

FC Edmonton

1.32

Forge

1.41

allows per match

FC Edmonton

1.45

Forge

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Edmonton+0.00on par

Forge+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Edmonton ↓

Forge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

FC Edmonton or draw

57%

FC Edmonton or Forge

74%

Draw or Forge

69%

Winning margin

FC Edmonton wins by 2+

12%

Forge wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

FC Edmonton 1+ goals

69%

FC Edmonton 2+ goals

32%

FC Edmonton 3+ goals

11%

Forge 1+ goals

76%

Forge 2+ goals

42%

Forge 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FC Edmonton (draw refunded)

41%

Forge (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Edmonton at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Forge away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Edmonton attack 1.32 + Forge defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Forge attack 1.41 + FC Edmonton defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Edmonton scores more

31%

level

26%

Forge scores more

43%

Forge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Forge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff