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FC Differdange 03 vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
10/29/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 3Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Differdange 0348%
×Draw24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
1.75
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.29

FC Differdange 03 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
2.14
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.95
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
72%
FC Differdange 03 or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
76%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
52%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
26%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
83%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
52%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
25%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
72%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
37%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
63%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.14 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.75

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
48%
level
24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
28%

FC Differdange 03 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: FC Differdange 03 5–1 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

FC Differdange 03 beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 5-1 in National Division on October 29, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange in Differdange.