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FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn — National Division 2018

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Progres Niederkorn
Progres Niederkorn
9/1/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 5Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

FC Differdange 0347%
×Draw24%
Progres Niederkorn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
1.70
Progres Niederkorn
1.31

FC Differdange 03 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
2.14
Progres Niederkorn
1.68

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.95
Progres Niederkorn
1.25

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
Progres Niederkorn+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Progres Niederkorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
70%
FC Differdange 03 or Progres Niederkorn
76%
Draw or Progres Niederkorn
53%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
25%
Progres Niederkorn wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
82%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
51%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
24%
Progres Niederkorn 1+ goals
73%
Progres Niederkorn 2+ goals
38%
Progres Niederkorn 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
61%
Progres Niederkorn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

Progres Niederkorn away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.25 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.14 + Progres Niederkorn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.70

Progres Niederkorn attack 1.68 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
47%
level
24%
Progres Niederkorn scores more
30%

FC Differdange 03 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Differdange 03 vs Progres Niederkorn

FC Differdange 03 beat Progres Niederkorn 1-0 in National Division on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Parc des Sports in Differdange.