Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Differdange 03 vs Etzella Ettelbruck — National Division 2018

FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
2/26/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 18Stade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FC Differdange 0363%
×Draw20%
Etzella Ettelbruck18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Differdange 03
2.24
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.11

FC Differdange 03 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 65 away

creates per match

FC Differdange 03
2.16
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.28

allows per match

FC Differdange 03
0.94
Etzella Ettelbruck
2.32

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par
Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw
82%
FC Differdange 03 or Etzella Ettelbruck
80%
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
37%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
40%
Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
89%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
65%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
38%
Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
67%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
30%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
78%
Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 2.16 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.24

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 1.28 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more
63%
level
20%
Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
18%

FC Differdange 03 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Differdange 03 vs Etzella Ettelbruck

FC Differdange 03 beat Etzella Ettelbruck 6-0 in National Division on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Parc des Sports in Differdange.