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FC Dallas vs Tulsa Roughnecks — US Open Cup 2018

FC Dallas
FC Dallas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tulsa Roughnecks
Tulsa Roughnecks
4/20/2022US Open CupUS Open Cup · 3rd RoundToyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FC Dallas61%
×Draw21%
Tulsa Roughnecks18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dallas
1.99
Tulsa Roughnecks
0.96

FC Dallas creates 107% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

FC Dallas
2.20
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.11

allows per match

FC Dallas
0.80
Tulsa Roughnecks
1.78

finishing

FC Dallas+0.00on par
Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw
82%
FC Dallas or Tulsa Roughnecks
79%
Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks
39%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+
37%
Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals
86%
FC Dallas 2+ goals
59%
FC Dallas 3+ goals
32%
Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals
62%
Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals
25%
Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)
78%
Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 2.20 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.99

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.11 + FC Dallas defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

FC Dallas scores more
61%
level
21%
Tulsa Roughnecks scores more
18%

FC Dallas at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: FC Dallas 2–1 Tulsa Roughnecks

FC Dallas beat Tulsa Roughnecks 2-1 in US Open Cup on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.