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FC Dallas vs San Diego — Major League Soccer 2021

FC Dallas
FC Dallas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
San Diego
San Diego
S. Lletget 56'
P. Musa 44'
T. Angel 90'
H. Lozano 77'
A. Dreyer 26' (pen)
6/29/2025Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 20Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC Dallas43%
×Draw23%
San Diego34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Dallas
1.73
San Diego
1.50

FC Dallas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Dallas
1.48
San Diego
1.75

allows per match

FC Dallas
1.24
San Diego
1.98

finishing

FC Dallas+0.38scores more
San Diego+0.83scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

San Diego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw
66%
FC Dallas or San Diego
77%
Draw or San Diego
57%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+
23%
San Diego wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals
82%
FC Dallas 2+ goals
52%
FC Dallas 3+ goals
25%
San Diego 1+ goals
78%
San Diego 2+ goals
44%
San Diego 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)
56%
San Diego (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.24 · 22 matches

San Diego away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.98 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.48 + San Diego defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Diego attack 1.75 + FC Dallas defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

FC Dallas scores more
43%
level
23%
San Diego scores more
34%

FC Dallas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. DreyerSan DiegoSan Diego · M
8.7

Match Events

26'
A. DreyerPenalty
35'
L. AcostaGoal Disallowed
44'
P. Musa
46'
T. Ntsabeleng← N. Norris
46'
T. Angel← M. Duah
56'
S. Lletget
60'
S. Moore
67'
L. Farrington← B. Kamungo
70'
L. Farrington
71'
J. Loffelsend← O. Verhoeven
71'
F. Negri← L. Bombino
71'
H. Lozano← A. Mighten
77'
H. Lozano
87'
Pedrinho← S. Lletget
90+2'
T. Ntsabeleng
90+10'
L. Acosta
90+10'
O. Valakari
90+8'
E. Boateng← M. Iloski
90'
T. Angel↳ A. Dreyer

Possession

37%FC

Shots

15FC

Pass accuracy

49%FC

Statistics

FCSan
Overview
37%Possession63%
15Total Shots15
2.27Expected Goals (xG)2.42
5Corners4
13Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots15
5On Target3
5Off Target5
5Blocked7
13Inside Box6
2Outside Box9
Passing
37%Possession63%
364Total Passes624
309Accurate Passes561
85%Pass Accuracy90%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
0.69Goals Prevented0.69
Discipline
13Fouls10
4Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Major League Soccer: FC Dallas 2–3 San Diego

San Diego beat FC Dallas 3-2 in Major League Soccer on June 29, 2025.

Goals: A. Dreyer (26' pen), P. Musa (44'), S. Lletget (56'), H. Lozano (77'), T. Angel (90').

San Diego controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium.