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FC Copenhagen vs Slavia Praha — UEFA Europa League 2018

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavia Praha
Slavia Praha
10/25/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 3Telia Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FC Copenhagen45%
×Draw26%
Slavia Praha29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
1.50
Slavia Praha
1.14

FC Copenhagen creates 32% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
1.50
Slavia Praha
1.57

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
0.71
Slavia Praha
1.50

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par
Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Slavia Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
71%
FC Copenhagen or Slavia Praha
74%
Draw or Slavia Praha
55%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
23%
Slavia Praha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
78%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
44%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
19%
Slavia Praha 1+ goals
68%
Slavia Praha 2+ goals
32%
Slavia Praha 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
61%
Slavia Praha (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 1.50 + Slavia Praha defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slavia Praha attack 1.57 + FC Copenhagen defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
45%
level
26%
Slavia Praha scores more
29%

FC Copenhagen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: FC Copenhagen 0–1 Slavia Praha

Slavia Praha beat FC Copenhagen 1-0 in UEFA Europa League on October 25, 2018.

The match was played at Telia Parken in Copenhagen.