FC Copenhagen 3–1 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

FC Nordsjaelland

12/2/2024

Superliga · Round 17Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

FC Copenhagen53%

×Draw23%

FC Nordsjaelland24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.18

FC Copenhagen

1.86

FC Nordsjaelland

1.18

FC Copenhagen creates 58% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

2.05

creates per match

1.33

1.02

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.05

FC Nordsjaelland

1.33

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.02

FC Nordsjaelland

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

76%

FC Copenhagen or FC Nordsjaelland

77%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

47%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

30%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

84%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

55%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

28%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

69%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

33%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

69%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.02 · 133 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.05 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.86

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.33 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

53%

level

23%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

24%

FC Copenhagen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff