FC Copenhagen 1–0 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Nordsjaelland

A. Amoo 7'

3/20/2022

Superliga · Round 22Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

FC Copenhagen52%

×Draw22%

FC Nordsjaelland25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

FC Copenhagen

1.92

FC Nordsjaelland

1.28

FC Copenhagen creates 50% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 26 away

2.21

creates per match

1.42

1.15

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.21

FC Nordsjaelland

1.42

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.15

FC Nordsjaelland

1.62

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen-0.15scores less

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

75%

FC Copenhagen or FC Nordsjaelland

78%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

48%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

30%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

85%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

57%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

30%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

72%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

37%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

67%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.21 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.42 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

52%

level

22%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

25%

FC Copenhagen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Hansen

FC Nordsjaelland · G

7.9

Match Events

7'

A. Amoo↳ K. Babacar

31'

Jens Stage

46'

W. Bøving← P. Mukairu

60'

R. Bardghji← A. Amoo

60'

N. Jørgensen← K. Babacar

67'

S. Adingra← B. Nygren

72'

J. Christensen← M. Diomandé

73'

M. Frese← D. Svensson

78'

M. Woledzi← A. Nagalo

78'

L. Coulibaly← M. Bidstrup

81'

Kevin Diks

85'

P. Ankersen← E. Jelert

85'

Í. Jóhannesson← Pep Biel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

23Total Shots6

4Corners2

9Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots6

7On Target0

9Off Target3

7Blocked3

16Inside Box2

7Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

476Total Passes631

391Accurate Passes537

82%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

1Offsides1