FC Copenhagen 2–2 Başakşehir: Result & Stats

FC Copenhagen

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Başakşehir

A. Chiakha 83', 79'

K. Piątek 80'

P. Keny 26'

11/7/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 3Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FC Copenhagen42%

×Draw24%

Başakşehir34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchBaşakşehir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.48

FC Copenhagen

1.67

Başakşehir

1.48

FC Copenhagen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

2.27

creates per match

1.69

1.27

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

FC Copenhagen

2.27

Başakşehir

1.69

allows per match

FC Copenhagen

1.27

Başakşehir

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Başakşehir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Başakşehir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw

66%

FC Copenhagen or Başakşehir

76%

Draw or Başakşehir

58%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

22%

Başakşehir wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

81%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

50%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

23%

Başakşehir 1+ goals

77%

Başakşehir 2+ goals

43%

Başakşehir 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

55%

Başakşehir (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Başakşehir away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.27 + Başakşehir defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.67

Başakşehir attack 1.69 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more

42%

level

24%

Başakşehir scores more

34%

FC Copenhagen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Chiakha

FC Copenhagen · F

8.7

Match Events

10'

13'

17'

21'

26'

45+1'

46'

G. Gocholeishvili← R. Huescas

46'

V. Claesson← V. Froholdt

46'

H. Güreler← O. Ba

55'

Davidson

60'

A. Cornelius← G. Onugkha

61'

D. Türüç← Davidson

70'

Deniz Türüç

71'

K. Piątek← João Figueiredo

73'

J. Larsson← W. Clem

76'

A. Chiakha← A. Cornelius

79'

80'

82'

83'

86'

Miguel Crespo← O. Ergün

86'

Ö. Şahiner← B. Özcan

90+4'

Krzysztof Piątek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBaşakşehir

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots8

1.75Expected Goals (xG)1.93

7Corners0

13Fouls14

Shots

21Total Shots8

9On Target4

4Off Target2

8Blocked2

9Inside Box5

12Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

582Total Passes296

494Accurate Passes209

85%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

0.41Goals Prevented0.41

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards6

Match Recap: FC Copenhagen vs Başakşehir

FC Copenhagen and Başakşehir drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 7, 2024.

Goals: P. Keny (26'), A. Chiakha (79', 83'), K. Piątek (80').

FC Copenhagen controlled possession (67%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Parken in København.

FC Copenhagen vs Başakşehir — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Copenhagen vs Başakşehir