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FC Copenhagen vs Aarhus — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
Canc
00:00
Aarhus
Aarhus
1/27/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Parken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

FC Copenhagen49%
×Draw21%
Aarhus30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Copenhagen
2.04
Aarhus
1.57

FC Copenhagen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

FC Copenhagen
2.78
Aarhus
1.71

allows per match

FC Copenhagen
1.44
Aarhus
1.29

finishing

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par
Aarhus+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Copenhagen ↓

Aarhus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FC Copenhagen or draw
70%
FC Copenhagen or Aarhus
79%
Draw or Aarhus
51%

Winning margin

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+
28%
Aarhus wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals
87%
FC Copenhagen 2+ goals
60%
FC Copenhagen 3+ goals
33%
Aarhus 1+ goals
79%
Aarhus 2+ goals
46%
Aarhus 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)
62%
Aarhus (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Copenhagen at home — creates 2.78, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Aarhus away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Copenhagen attack 2.78 + Aarhus defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Aarhus attack 1.71 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Copenhagen scores more
49%
level
21%
Aarhus scores more
30%

FC Copenhagen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Copenhagen face Aarhus (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with FC Copenhagen hosting Aarhus. Match starts January 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

FC Copenhagen host Aarhus at Parken.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.