Aarhus 2–0 FC Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Aarhus

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Copenhagen

11/30/2025

Superliga · Round 17New Vejlby Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Aarhus37%

×Draw25%

FC Copenhagen39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AarhusExpected goals in this matchFC Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.49

Aarhus

1.44

FC Copenhagen

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 132 away

1.61

creates per match

1.83

1.15

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Aarhus

1.61

FC Copenhagen

1.83

allows per match

Aarhus

1.15

FC Copenhagen

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus+0.00on par

FC Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

FC Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw

61%

Aarhus or FC Copenhagen

75%

Draw or FC Copenhagen

63%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+

17%

FC Copenhagen wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals

76%

Aarhus 2+ goals

42%

Aarhus 3+ goals

18%

FC Copenhagen 1+ goals

77%

FC Copenhagen 2+ goals

44%

FC Copenhagen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)

49%

FC Copenhagen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.15 · 133 matches

FC Copenhagen away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.26 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 1.61 + FC Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Copenhagen attack 1.83 + Aarhus defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aarhus scores more

37%

level

25%

FC Copenhagen scores more

39%

FC Copenhagen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff