FC Clinceni 0–1 Sportul Snagov: Result & Stats

FC Clinceni

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportul Snagov

9/29/2018

Liga II · Round 9Stadionul Comunal 2 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni66%

×Draw20%

Sportul Snagov14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ClinceniExpected goals in this matchSportul Snagov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.79

FC Clinceni

2.04

Sportul Snagov

0.79

FC Clinceni creates 158% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 30 away

2.32

creates per match

1.10

0.47

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

FC Clinceni

2.32

Sportul Snagov

1.10

allows per match

FC Clinceni

0.47

Sportul Snagov

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Sportul Snagov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw

86%

FC Clinceni or Sportul Snagov

80%

Draw or Sportul Snagov

34%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

41%

Sportul Snagov wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

87%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

60%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

33%

Sportul Snagov 1+ goals

55%

Sportul Snagov 2+ goals

19%

Sportul Snagov 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

83%

Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

FC Clinceni scores more

66%

level

20%

Sportul Snagov scores more

14%

FC Clinceni at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff