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FC Clinceni vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
5/20/2021Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 9Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni31%
×Draw27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.11
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.32

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 135 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.18

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
1.25

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
59%
FC Clinceni or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
73%
Draw or Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
69%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
12%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
67%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
30%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
10%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 1+ goals
73%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2+ goals
38%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
43%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.25 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe attack 1.18 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
31%
level
27%
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe scores more
41%

Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe

FC Clinceni beat Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe 2-1 in Liga I on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Ion Comşa in Călăraşi.