FC Clinceni 2–3 GAZ Metan Medias: Result & Stats

FC Clinceni

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

GAZ Metan Medias

2/15/2020

Liga I · Round 25Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni39%

×Draw27%

GAZ Metan Medias34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC ClinceniExpected goals in this matchGAZ Metan Medias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.18

FC Clinceni

1.28

GAZ Metan Medias

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

0.97

creates per match

0.89

1.47

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

FC Clinceni

0.97

GAZ Metan Medias

0.89

allows per match

FC Clinceni

1.47

GAZ Metan Medias

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw

66%

FC Clinceni or GAZ Metan Medias

73%

Draw or GAZ Metan Medias

61%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

17%

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

72%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

37%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

14%

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

69%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

33%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

53%

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.28

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Clinceni scores more

39%

level

27%

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

34%

FC Clinceni at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff