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FC Clinceni vs FC Politehnica Timisoara — Liga II 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Politehnica Timisoara
FC Politehnica Timisoara
11/3/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 15Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni64%
×Draw23%
FC Politehnica Timisoara13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.77
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.65

FC Clinceni creates 172% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
2.32
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.83

allows per match

FC Clinceni
0.47
FC Politehnica Timisoara
1.23

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
FC Politehnica Timisoara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

FC Politehnica Timisoara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
87%
FC Clinceni or FC Politehnica Timisoara
77%
Draw or FC Politehnica Timisoara
36%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
38%
FC Politehnica Timisoara wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
83%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
53%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
26%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 1+ goals
48%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 2+ goals
14%
FC Politehnica Timisoara 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
83%
FC Politehnica Timisoara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

FC Politehnica Timisoara away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + FC Politehnica Timisoara defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.77

FC Politehnica Timisoara attack 0.83 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
64%
level
23%
FC Politehnica Timisoara scores more
13%

FC Clinceni at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Clinceni 2–0 FC Politehnica Timisoara

FC Clinceni beat FC Politehnica Timisoara 2-0 in Liga II on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni).