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FC Clinceni vs FC Astra Giurgiu — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Astra Giurgiu
FC Astra Giurgiu
2/27/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 25Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

FC Clinceni30%
×Draw28%
FC Astra Giurgiu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.06
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.30

FC Astra Giurgiu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 54 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.13

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
FC Astra Giurgiu
1.15

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
FC Astra Giurgiu+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

FC Astra Giurgiu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
58%
FC Clinceni or FC Astra Giurgiu
72%
Draw or FC Astra Giurgiu
70%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
12%
FC Astra Giurgiu wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
65%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
29%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
9%
FC Astra Giurgiu 1+ goals
73%
FC Astra Giurgiu 2+ goals
37%
FC Astra Giurgiu 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
42%
FC Astra Giurgiu (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

FC Astra Giurgiu away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + FC Astra Giurgiu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

FC Astra Giurgiu attack 1.13 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
30%
level
28%
FC Astra Giurgiu scores more
42%

FC Astra Giurgiu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FC Astra Giurgiu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs FC Astra Giurgiu

FC Clinceni and FC Astra Giurgiu drew 1-1 in Liga I on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.