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FC Clinceni vs CS Mioveni — Liga II 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CS Mioveni
CS Mioveni
12/1/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 20Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni57%
×Draw24%
CS Mioveni19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.67
CS Mioveni
0.83

FC Clinceni creates 101% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
2.32
CS Mioveni
1.19

allows per match

FC Clinceni
0.47
CS Mioveni
1.01

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
CS Mioveni+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

CS Mioveni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
81%
FC Clinceni or CS Mioveni
76%
Draw or CS Mioveni
43%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
32%
CS Mioveni wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
81%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
50%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
23%
CS Mioveni 1+ goals
56%
CS Mioveni 2+ goals
20%
CS Mioveni 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
76%
CS Mioveni (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

CS Mioveni away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + CS Mioveni defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

CS Mioveni attack 1.19 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
57%
level
24%
CS Mioveni scores more
19%

FC Clinceni at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs CS Mioveni

FC Clinceni beat CS Mioveni 2-1 in Liga II on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni).