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FC Clinceni vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
12/19/2021Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Marin Anastasovici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni33%
×Draw29%
Chindia Targoviste38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.04
Chindia Targoviste
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
Chindia Targoviste
0.78

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
Chindia Targoviste
1.11

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
62%
FC Clinceni or Chindia Targoviste
71%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
67%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
13%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
65%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
28%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
9%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
68%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
31%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
47%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
33%
level
29%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
38%

Chindia Targoviste at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga I on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici in Giurgiu.