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FC Clinceni vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
5/6/2021Liga ILiga I · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Clinceni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

FC Clinceni25%
×Draw26%
CFR 1907 Cluj49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
0.96
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 53% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 154 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
0.97
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

FC Clinceni
1.47
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
51%
FC Clinceni or CFR 1907 Cluj
74%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
75%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
9%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
62%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
25%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
7%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
77%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
43%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
34%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 58 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 0.97 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + FC Clinceni defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
25%
level
26%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
49%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Clinceni vs CFR 1907 Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat FC Clinceni 1-0 in Liga I on May 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni in Clinceni.